This is a quick post that is the exact same as the Mega Millions post I did. I break down the Powerball odds, use some sales data, and look at the EV over various jackpots.
The quick takeaway, as the Powerball is up to $450 million for Wednesday, is that either this drawing (or the next if no one wins) is as near to the possible expected value for this lottery. The other takeaway? Don’t buy lottery tickets!
UPDATE: Going back I found an error in my code. I’ll update it at some point, but for now, take it with a grain of salt (except the historical data part, that part was fine).